Investment turnover 30% above 15-year average – low interest rates and rental growth attract capital into property

The latest instalment of Savills Investment Report, released today, reports that a booming economy, rising rents and continued low interest rates drove spending on income-producing property in Ireland to €2.28bn in 2017.  While this is 30% above the 15-year average it represents a considerable slowdown compared with 2016 when two blockbuster sales – of Blanchardstown and Liffey Valley Shopping Centres in Dublin – propelled turnover to just under €4.5bn.

• More than one-third of Dublin’s office space and all 6 of the major suburban shopping centres have been sold since 2013
• Supply-side constraints steering investors towards building their own investment properties or buying assets that have not yet been built
• Speculative development, portfolio break-ups and re-trades will provide ongoing opportunities to buy standing assets
• Build-to-rent residential, offices and industrial the sectors of choice in 2017
• Foreign buyers account for more than half of purchases

The slowdown in spending reflects the fact that, after 4 years of very brisk trading, many investment properties are now in stable long-term ownership.  To put the sheer volume of investment activity in perspective, one third of Dublin’s office stock, and all 6 of its major suburban shopping centres, have changed hands since 2013.

Tight Supply

While the supply of investment product is tightening, Dr. John McCartney, Director of Research at Savills, says that there are still plentiful opportunities for investors to deploy capital in Ireland,

“Re-trades of assets bought earlier in the cycle will provide ongoing opportunities for investors.  These include individual assets and properties which were packaged within portfolios that are now being broken up.  The speculative development pipeline is also now producing buildings which will be completed, let and sold off as investments.”

Illustrating the potential supply that could still come from re-trades, Savills analysis shows that private equity funds have purchased €2bn more than they have sold in recent years.  With these buyers typically targeting a 3-5-year hold, divestment by private equity, players should continue to produce opportunities for others in the coming years.

Forward Commitments

With more limited availability of standing investments, investors are increasingly focusing on development assets.  Some are directly developing their own buildings.  Others are pre-purchasing assets that are yet to be built, or are pre-funding developers to build properties for them.

John McCartney explained; “Either by providing direct funding, or by making development projects ‘bankable’, these forward commitment contracts have facilitated considerable development that would otherwise have been difficult to achieve in a context of very tight bank lending for speculative development.”

Residential Build-To-Rent, Offices and Industrial Property in Demand

While offices remain a popular choice for property investors, and accounted for the highest proportion of turnover for the fourth year out of the last five, one of the biggest stories of 2017 was the emergence of residential and industrial as sectors of choice.

According to Savills investors are attracted to rental apartment blocks by chronic undersupply in the private rented sector.   Rapidly rising house prices and restrictive mortgage lending have led to a 39,500-person growth in the number of private renters in Ireland in 12 months.  With supply failing to keep up rents are rising and will be strongly underpinned by demand for the foreseeable future.   Here, as in other sectors, limited available stock is steering investors towards forward commitments;

Mr. McCartney explained, “2017 saw several investors take this approach by entering into forward commitment arrangements to acquire rental stock.  Both SW3 Capital and German institution Patrizia have taken a forward purchase route at Honeypark in Dun Laoghaire.  This involves committing in advance to buy a completed block at a fixed price.  This mechanism de-risks the project, making it possible for the developer to finance the build-out costs.   In a slightly different arrangement Marlet Property Group is in advanced discussions with a preferred bidder to forward fund the development 1,205 rental apartments across four sites in Dublin.  In this model the investor buys the site from the developer up-front and then funds the developer to complete the scheme.”

Logistics has historically been the bridesmaid of the Irish commercial property sector.  However, with technology changing the way producers and retailers interact with consumers, logistics property is featuring more prominently in the distribution chain.  With pricing for logistics units in Ireland still very competitive, and rents rising by 8.2% per annum, Savills says that there is a considerable weight of capital targeting this sector.

Foreign Buyers Prominent

In contrast to Ireland’s property boom days, foreign investors continued to account for more than half (53.3%) of the total investment spend in 2017.

Outlook

Mr. McCartney concluded, “After four years of very busy trading the market for standing assets has become more granular.  While there are still opportunities for large scale investors to buy prime assets, the trade in existing properties has shifted somewhat towards fringe and regional locations, older buildings and lower price points.

In saying this, core investors are continuing to find an outlet for larger tranches of capital through forward commitment arrangements. Moreover, with the speculative development pipeline now delivering significant quantities of new stock, investors will increasingly find opportunities to buy newly completed buildings – particularly offices and residential blocks.

Looking ahead we expect favourable investment conditions to continue.  On the demand side, consensus forecasts indicate that Ireland’s economy should outperform again in 2018 and 2019.  This will underpin occupational markets and our forecast is for further rental growth across all sectors of the market.  While interest rates are destined to eventually begin migrating back to more normalised levels, current thinking is that rate hikes are unlikely before mid-2019.  On the supply side, we believe the trend towards forward commitment arrangements to continue.  But speculative development and re-trades will also ensure ample opportunities for investors of all shapes and sizes to deploy capital.”